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A Kassem, M, Khoiry, M A and Hamzah, N (2020) Assessment of the effect of external risk factors on the success of an oil and gas construction project. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2767–93.

Adabre, M A and Chan, A P (2020) Towards a sustainability assessment model for affordable housing projects: the perspective of professionals in Ghana. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2523–51.

Ahmadu, H A, Ibrahim, A D, Ibrahim, Y M and Adogbo, K J (2020) Incorporating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the modelling of construction duration. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2199–219.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Aleatory uncertainty; Epistemic uncertainty; Construction duration; Prediction; Bayesian model averaging; Monte Carlo simulation; Fuzzy logic;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0969-9988
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-06-2019-0304
  • Abstract:
    This study aims to develop a model which incorporates the impact of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties into construction duration predictions, in a manner that is consistent with the nature/quality of information available about various factors which bring about uncertainties.Design/methodology/approach Data relating to 178 completed Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETfund) building construction projects were obtained from construction firms via questionnaire survey. Using 90% of the data, the model was developed in the form of a hybrid-based algorithm implemented through a suitable user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) using MATLAB programming language. Bayesian model averaging, Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy logic were the statistical methods used for the algorithm development, prior to its GUI implementation in MATLAB. Using the remaining 10% data, the model's predictive accuracy was assessed via the independent samples t-test and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).Findings The developed model's predictions were found not statistically different from those of actual duration estimates in the 10% test data, with a MAPE of just 2%. This suggests that the model's ability to incorporate both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties improves accuracy of duration predictions made using it.Research limitations/implications The model was developed using a particular type of building projects (TETfund building construction projects), and so its use is limited to projects with characteristics similar to those used for its development.Practical implications The developed model's predictions are expected to serve as a useful basis for consultancy firms and contractor organisations to make more realistic schedules and benchmark measures of construction period, thereby facilitating effective planning and successful execution of construction projects.Originality/value The study presented a model which permits combined manipulation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, hence ensuring a more realistic incorporation of uncertainty into construction duration predictions.

Akanmu, A, Olayiwola, J and Olatunji, O A (2020) Musculoskeletal disorders within the carpentry trade: analysis of timber flooring subtasks. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2577–90.

Almatroushi, H, Hariga, M, As'ad, R and Al-Bar, A (2020) The multi resource leveling and materials procurement problem: an integrated approach. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2135–61.

Amos, D, Au-Yong, C P and Musa, Z N (2020) Developing key performance indicators for hospital facilities management services: a developing country perspective. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2715–35.

Chiu, W Y B and Lai, J H (2020) Building information modelling for building services engineering: benefits, barriers and conducive measures. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2221–52.

Edwards, D J, Rillie, I, Chileshe, N, Lai, J, Hosseini, M R and Thwala, W D (2020) A field survey of hand–arm vibration exposure in the UK utilities sector. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2179–98.

Farajmandi, M, Ali, M, Hermann, R and AbouRizk, S (2020) A decision support tool for planning module installation in industrial construction. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2615–41.

Hsu, P, Aurisicchio, M, Angeloudis, P and Whyte, J (2020) Understanding and visualizing schedule deviations in construction projects using fault tree analysis. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2501–22.

Karamoozian, A and Wu, D (2020) A hybrid risk prioritization approach in construction projects using failure mode and effective analysis. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2661–86.

Liu, H, Song, J and Wang, G (2020) Development of a tool for measuring building information modeling (BIM) user satisfaction – method selection, scale development and case study. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2409–27.

Liu, J, Cui, Z, Feng, Y, Perera, S and Han, J (2020) Impact of culture differences on performance of international construction joint ventures: the moderating role of conflict management. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2353–77.

Luo, L, Zhang, L and He, Q (2020) Linking project complexity to project success: a hybrid SEM–FCM method. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2591–614.

Ma, L and Fu, H (2020) Exploring the influence of project complexity on the mega construction project success: a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2429–49.

Maqsoom, A, Hamad, M, Ashraf, H, Thaheem, M J and Umer, M (2020) Managerial control mechanisms and their influence on project performance: an investigation of the moderating role of complexity risk. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2451–75.

Moon, S, Ham, N, Kim, S, Hou, L, Kim, J and Kim, J (2020) Fourth industrialization-oriented offsite construction: case study of an application to an irregular commercial building. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2271–86.

Nasirzadeh, F, Kabir, H D, Akbari, M, Khosravi, A, Nahavandi, S and Carmichael, D G (2020) ANN-based prediction intervals to forecast labour productivity. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2335–51.

Sezegen, A and Edis, E (2020) Product innovation types: a discussion considering building facade products. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2379–408.

Sinoh, S S, Othman, F and Ibrahim, Z (2020) Critical success factors for BIM implementation: a Malaysian case study. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2737–65.

Tran, D H (2020) Optimizing time–cost in generalized construction projects using multiple-objective social group optimization and multi-criteria decision-making methods. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2287–313.

Tran, D Q, Harper, C M, Smadi, A M and Mohamed, M (2020) Staffing needs and utilization for alternative contracting methods in highway design and construction. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2163–78.

Viswanathan, S K and Jha, K N (2020) Risk mitigation modelling of international construction projects executed by Indian firms: a structural equation modelling approach. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2687–713.

Wang, P, Wu, P, Wang, X, Chen, X and Zhou, T (2020) Developing optimal scaffolding erection through the integration of lean and work posture analysis. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2109–33.

Wu, J, Liu, H J, Sing, M C, Humphrey, R and Zhao, J (2020) Public–private partnerships: implications from policy changes for practice in managing risks. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2253–69.

Wuni, I Y and Shen, G Q (2020) Critical success factors for management of the early stages of prefabricated prefinished volumetric construction project life cycle. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2315–33.

Zhang, H and Yu, L (2020) Dynamic transportation planning for prefabricated component supply chain. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2553–76.

Zhang, H, Yu, L and Zhang, W (2020) Dynamic performance incentive model with supervision mechanism for PPP projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2643–59.

Zhang, S B, Chen, J and Fu, Y (2020) Contract complexity and trust in construction project subcontracting. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(09), 2477–500.